Глава 6. Вы эксперт?

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Глава 6. Вы эксперт?

1. J. Scott Armstrong, “The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting”, Technology Review 83 (June-July 1980):16–24.

2. Arul Gawande, Complications: A Surgeon’s Notes on an Imperfect Science (New York: Picador, 2002), 35–37.

3. Paul J. Feltovich, Rand J. Spiro, and Richard L. Coulsen, “Issues of Expert Flexibility in Contexts Characterized by Complexity and Change”, in Expertise in Context: Human and Machine, ed. Paul J. Feltovich, Kenneth M. Ford, and Robert R. Hoffman (Menlo Park, Cal.: AAAI Press and Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1997), 125–46.

4. R. J. Spiro, W. Vispoel, J. Schmitz, A. Samarapungavan, and A. Boeger, “Knowledge Acquisition for Application: Cognitive Flexibility and Transfer in Complex Content Domains”, in Executive Control Processes, ed. B. C. Britton (Hillsdale, N. J.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1987), 177–99.

5. Robyn M. Dawes, David Faust, and Paul E. Meehl, “Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment”, in Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, ed. Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), 716–29.

6. Gawande, Complications, 44.

7. Katie Haffner, “In an Ancient Game, Computing’s Future”, The New York Times, August 1, 2002.

8. James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations (New York: Doubleday, 2004)[11].

9. Joe Nocera, “On Oil Supply, Opinions Aren’t Scarce”, The New York Times, September 10, 2005.

10. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 2005), 68.

11. Там же, 73–75.

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